Ep. 216 - Wealth Wisdom Unleashed with Gabriel Shahin

  📍 📍 Good day. This is Gabriel Shahin, Certified Financial Planner, and your host of More Knowledge, More Wealth, here on every weekend, talking about all important topics of personal finance. My job is to go over the knowledge you need to increase your wealth. Now, to the listener, you can always reach out to myself, or any one of my colleagues here at Falcon Wealth Planning.

Our phone number is 855 963 2526. That's 855 96 Falcon. Like the bird or visit our website at falconwealthplanning. com. That's falconwp. com for short, where you can get this episodes and any one of our previous episodes as well through iHeartRadio. podcast and Spotify and visit our knowledge center on our website where you get some fantastic tips through our YouTube channel at Falcon Wealth Planning.

And we go over all important topics of personal finance. And if you want anything addressed on this show, just send a message to radio at falconwp. com. That's an email at Falcon or at radio at falconwp. com. Now I'm the president of Falcon Wealth Planning. We are a fee only non commissioned true fiduciary folks.

And our goal is to help you with All aspects of personal finance. That's what this show is based on. The more information and knowledge you have, the more wealth you will gain. And we talk about where you are today, how investments look like estate planning, taxes, insurance, folks, you name it. Anything that involves a dollar sign, we can help you with folks.

And we're offering a free financial assessment where we can help relate this show to your specific situation. Folks, we have offices all over and we're giving you one to two meetings, one to two hours of our time folks at no cost. We would love to help folks. Our phone number is 855 963 2526. That's 855 96 Falcon, like the bird.

And we're able to answer those questions that you have and truly just let you know what's going on. Because what I've noticed more than, uh, more times than not, especially recently, is that people are Just not aware of what's going on and why things are happening, uh, in the world, in the markets, based on current events.

And we have always a lot going on. There's always something in the news. And when there's not something in the news, they'll bring up, like, something crazy, like, uh, chicken virus, or, uh, swine flu, or tomato You know, issues or whatever the case is, right? So shortages, that's when you know, like things are slow in the news.

Obviously we got a lot more than that. And so, which is upsetting, which is sad, but I just like to talk about just in general, as we're closing out the year here, just recapping what happened last. And taking a look in November of 2023 and just understanding that, man, that was a fantastic time to invest.

People are excited about a 5 percent yield annual yield on their savings account, which is fantastic. But in just one month. NASDAQ, uh, did over 10%, almost 11 and Dow Jones and S& P 500 did almost 9%. So that's not always going to happen, right? That's the case. You double your money every year. That's a hundred percent annualized returns.

I'm not by any means saying anything about that. That's over a hundred percent return. So what I'm saying is, is the fear of missing out. Because here's the thing, if you sold and thought you were super smart in 2022, you've got to be super smart twice, right? You've got to buy, you've got to know when to buy, you've got to know when the bottom is.

You can't just be right once, you have to be right twice. And that's the biggest thing that sometimes people miss out on. So looking at your current situation, when you take a look, man, November was great, December, eh, it's alright. Entering in 2024, what does this mean? I mean, because if you want to know why things did so well, well, CPI numbers did really well.

The core CPI, which doesn't count energy and food, right, because gas prices really dropped significantly, did pretty well. You know, that's a reason why when the news came out in CPI numbers, that the S& P 500 that day alone went up almost 3%. And guess what? The 10 year treasury dropped almost 19 basis points in a single day.

One of the biggest drops ever. That's massive. I just remember a month or so ago, or maybe now two months ago, when the 10 year treasury was 5%. That's when mortgages were over 8%. Now mortgages are like 6. 5 percent again. That's a massive drop. The 10 year treasury, which by the way, interest rates on mortgages are pretty much based on has had more volatility in the past 24 months than the stock market.

Think about that for a second. It's kind of crazy. And so just in general, when you look at Everything that's going on. And when you look at just the top 500 companies, which 94 percent of them have already came out, they've already reported. And you look at 82 percent of them have positive earnings and 62 percent of them have positive revenue numbers.

64 of the 500 had negative earnings, 64 company, not 64 percent had negative earnings. And that's what they're expecting for Q4 as well. So what does that mean? That's by the way, about what, 10, 15%? Well, the rest. are projected positive. And as you've seen, there are positive. And why is that? Because in Q4, which is October, November, December, this is where people spend a lot during the Halloween, spend a lot during Thanksgiving, and during the holiday season of Christmas and New Year's, and so on and so forth.

People are spending money, whether it's to travel or whether it's for gift time. That's what people are doing. And this is why typically Q4 is really good numbers, strong numbers. You know why they call it black Friday? Because there's black and red in accounting. I know people think positive is green, but it's actually black from an accounting point of view, black Friday means cause that's when all the companies go in the black, which is positive.

And just taking a look, just in general, what's been going on in just sectors. I mean, this is kind of really the biggest focus, and I'd just like to go over this if you don't mind. I mean, when you take a look at all the sectors that we have, Okay, this is a, uh, just, let's just focus on November. Okay, energy obviously dropped almost a percent, point, negative 72.

Okay. Check this out. You have consumer services up almost 8%. Consumer discretionary is 11%. Consumer staple is over 4%. You have financials 11%. Remember they got beat up earlier in 2023 because of all the small regional banks. Having their issues there because of all the silly things they were doing.

Healthcare up almost five and a half. Industrials up almost nine. Materials up almost eight and a half. Real estate up 12. 5. Technology up almost 13 and utilities up over 5 percent by guys. I don't know if you caught this, that's just for November. So, yet again, my point is, you can't afford to be too smart for your own good.

Where you're trying to time certain things of when to buy, when to sell, when to invest, when not to invest. It's not a binary approach. Have you ever thought of just being diversified instead of trying to time when to invest and when to sell? How about you invest in everything? That way you know. That at any given point something's going to go up and something's going to go down It's a very normal thing and by staying invested, you know over time it makes money now what to be diversified in That is a different story.

By the way, folks, if you're just joining me, you're listening to Gabriel Shane, Certified Financial Planner and your host of more knowledge, more wealth here on every weekend talking about all important topics of personal finance. Today, I'm just talking about the basic concepts of economics and what this simple thing, uh, of economy looks like.

And from a positive point of view, when somebody says, yeah, the economy is good. Well, they're looking at many different pieces to this. They're looking at inflation, they're looking at Gross Domestic Product, what's coming in, America, what are we bringing in? These are important concepts. And so, yet again, you go over this and when you look at, listen, last month S& P did almost 9%, 8.

92. For the year, it's up. 19 percent as of November 30th, NASDAQ up 36, almost 36 percent by November by November 30th. Russell 1000, 19 percent and just a 10 year treasury, roughly four and a half percent with a half a percent gain this year, I mean, yet again. These are all and these are all the stuffs on Yahoo finance guys I'm just getting just kind of reading this all off because of the important piece that people sometimes don't factor in There was so many different little things to look at and when you look at just world markets in general you look at European markets such as France Okay.

And just in November alone, they also did well. The whole, uh, MSCI, uh, index, okay, the, the Europe, uh, Asia, Far East, and so on, did over 9 percent in November. Why? Well, there's moderate inflation. It has slowed down. And hopes of interest rate cuts. Now you look at European stocks, France up over 6%, Germany up almost 10%, Italy up over 7%, Spain up almost 12%.

Okay. UK lagged a little bit about 2%. But I mean, these are important factors. When you look at Japan up almost eight and a half percent, Hong Kong is also one that performed a little outlier there. Cause it falls by about 1. 6%. And China still continues to struggle, which is important. But my goodness, when you look at all these things, it's important.

And when you just focus on Asia, cause there's so much development and talks about Asia, you have China. They're saying index last, uh, which I was saying dropped about 1. 65 percent year to date. They're down 15 percent Korea just in November up 11. 3 percent year to date. They're up 13. 36%. Like that's crazy.

Almost 90 percent of the returns just came in November. Japan, for the year, up almost 30%. Last month alone, 8. 5%. India, up 10 percent for the year. Almost half of that came in November alone. Egypt, up 70. 70%. The EGF, the EGX 30 is up that much and while it just in November alone went up 10%. Brazil, look at this, year to date up 15.

5%. November alone they made 12. 5%. Almost 80 percent of the returns. Mexico, same thing, they made 10, over 10 percent in November, 11. 5 percent for the year. Australia, finally got in the green, up 4. 5 percent for November, year to date up 0. 7%. Guys, it just keeps going. Right. Germany up 16. 5 percent for the year.

France up almost 13 percent for the year. You have Spain up over 22%. The UK flat for the year. Italy up over 25 percent of the year. Guys! So you got globals looking strong. You got international or US looking good. Emerging markets like Egypt, for example, who would have thought would you have chose Egypt to invest in?

The point is staying globally. Diversified. When we come back, we're going to talk more about indicators such as employment, GDP, retail sales, industrial production, housing, things that you don't think about, and I don't expect you to think about. This is why people have and work with, utilize a financial professional, where they have a financial.

Partnership. Were they able to help and take a look at their situation and see how they should be invested? Folks, that's why we offer a free financial assessment where we give you one to two meetings, one to two hours of our time, folks, at no cost because there's so much to look at in the world. And even though you get that information, how does it impact your pocketbook based on your risk level based on your income needs based on your savings rates?

That's where we help. Give us a call. Our phone number is 855 963 2526. That's 855 96 Falcon. Like the bird. We'd love to help with you. Um, just give us a call. We'll be right back after a few words. 📍 📍

Welcome back, folks. This is Gabriel Shane, Certified Financial Planner and your host of More Knowledge, More Wealth. Here on Every Weekend, talking about all important topics in personal finance. I spent this first segment just talking about so much information of what's going on in the economy in just the month of November.

Think about that. And maybe I should start doing that every time so you just know what is going on today. And there's just so much that you gotta look at your portfolio and be like, how are you invested? If you're God willing, you're just blindly saving. Like ignorance is bliss. Who cares what's going on in the world?

Because it doesn't really impact what and how you're eating today. Uh, God willing it doesn't. Um, and you could just be blindly savings in your 401k. Hopefully you're saving 10, 15, 20 percent of your income even in there. Now if you're, I know what you're thinking. Well Gabriel, that's crazy. Probably for your rich clients they're doing that.

Yeah, but guess what? You're saving 20 percent of your savings. By the way, that's not all you. You might be saving 15 percent and your employer matches 5. Okay, that's number one. Number two, the 15 percent you save, if it's in a tax referred account, well, you're probably getting a third of that back in tax savings.

So if you put in a thousand a month to save, your paycheck doesn't go down a thousand. It might only go down 400, because there's a tax factor into that where the payroll company won't withhold as much as taxes. So, yet again, I'm hoping you're blindly saving. That would be an ideal situation. The thing is, just a lot of people don't think that way.

It's delayed gratification. We're not in a society of delayed gratification. I want it now! That's how people are! And yet again, I don't blame you. That's how our whole society is. I'm just saying you can't have it both ways. Don't worry about tomorrow and all the crap on the media right now, if you're focused on today.

So if you are worried about tomorrow, how about you start saving for tomorrow? And how about you start investing the proper way for tomorrow? That's my point. It's funny how people only just, whatever is convenient for people. So, I mean, the idea is there's so much going on, you're fixating on what's on social media.

It sounds like we live in such a crappy country. And by the way, every single country that has their own social media is watching the same crap over and over and over again and getting upset with their own countries. Now, other countries are a little smarter or more aggressive. What does that mean? They restrict what you see.

They actually tell and show you what they want you to show you. That's called propaganda. Oh, by the way, America does that too, . So the idea here is focus on you, your family. Don't let external forces upset you. That's like watching the news and getting upset all the time. It's like watching your favorite show.

You know? I know some of you get really upset watching your team lose game after game and season after season. I get that. The idea here is just focus on your goals. What you, a goal you could control. Hey, you, you want to know what's another goal? Yeah, I want the Phoenix Suns or the Los Angeles Lakers to win the NBA championship.

Well, if they don't, is that going to like affect me? Is that going to affect the food on my table? No. Focus on things that affect your financial situation, which you could be happy with. Now going into more detail, we talked a lot of numbers and what, how well November was in the stock market and how year to date things are looking pretty good.

I'm sure you would be happy with 20 percent returns if it stayed like this. That would. Might be looking like that, but the idea is a lot of these indicators. I want to talk about those because right now GDP is a big one okay, now GDP the gross domestic product is important because the By the way, the estimate that came out was 4.

9, but actually they revised it to 5. 2 percent now That's a pretty good growth rate China gets upset when they're under six and seven America's historical GDP over the past 20 years is about 2 percent you know, cuz we're already so big so highlighting the fact That, uh, GDP growth is good. Okay, and quite frankly, that's what they look at when they determine a recession.

Historically speaking, they say two quarters of a negative declining GDP. That's how you know you're entering the recession. That was such a the drama that happened last year because we had two quarters of negative GDP, but we didn't. Claim the recession. It was annoying to everybody. So anyway, just commenting there.

Uh, sorry, those who are seeing this video cast on YouTube, I looks like I have some allergies coming. I'm just keeps a messing with my nose here. So I apologize. Employment numbers. This is another important one, right? Because adding new jobs symbolizes growth. And in October, they added 150, 000 jobs. Okay.

Now in September was 297, 000 jobs. Okay, and so the idea here is that unemployment is still under four percent and the forecast of jobs is about 170, 000 coming up, but we're still under four percent inflation. Now the concept here is hourly earnings Is is higher, right? It's it's average Hourly earnings came in right about what they expected, but it is still getting high And so this is why you see some restaurants, we talked about this in the past, where they have you wait, even though they have a bunch of empty tables.

They just can't afford as many servers as they historically have. Now, retail sales came off with a really good October. There's numbers that said Cyber Monday was 15 percent greater than last year's. Also, they're predicting retail sales during the holiday season is going to be picking up as well. Yet again, these are all positive signs.

Part of the reason the market had another fantastic. November industrial production. Yes. Okay. That dropped by about 0. 6 percent dropped more than the 0. 4 percent if they thought. Um, but yet again, these are things they look at. Housing rose about 1. 9 percent in October. Okay. Now a lot of this has to do with shortage of existing homes.

Okay. Sales of existing homes have declined 4. 1 percent month over month to a 13 year low while sales from a year ago are down about 14 and a half percent. Now the sale price has still grown at 3. 4 percent because of supply and demand and new home sales fell about 6 percent in October though they were higher from a year ago.

By about 17. 7%. There is no shortage of information because now you have to take that information and decide, okay, so people are working, people are still hiring people. Okay. Got it. Uh, you have housing, okay. That's going up because of demand. You have retail sales that are looking pretty strong. Industrial production's a little slower.

You have a GDP, which has continued to rise at a good rate. Some would say, well, that's because of prices have gone up. Okay. You got CPI index, which is the consumer price index. All right. We said that was increasing. Yeah. You have the feds that's hinted that rates can come down next year. They pretty much, this is the peak.

This is it. This is the, uh, cycle has potentially ended. So historically speaking, that's good for the economy for many different reasons. So now you take all this information, put it together. What does that mean for you? By the way, folks, if you're just joining me, you're listening to Gabriel Sheen, certified financial planner, and your host of more knowledge, more wealthier on every weekend talking about all important topics of personal finance and all my whole reason of talking about all this stuff is now, what are you going to do with that information?

Seriously, what are you going to do? You've got all this great information. You're going to invest more? You're going to sell? Yes, it's good information. This is what we look at. This is what analysts look at. This is what economic leaders look at. But how does it impact it? Well, I'll tell you, because this is where opinion comes in.

I can take a look at this information and take a look at it from a financial accounting point of view or a financial analysis point of view and say, things are going to be great. Looks fantastic. Look at all these strengths. Look at all these hiring. Look at all these sales. Oh, the market's going to keep going up.

That's fantastic. That's financial analytics, financial analysis. We're taking a look at all this information, all these great returns, all of the revenue, the earnings from the S& P 500. You have almost 85 percent of all the companies have positive earnings. That's fantastic. Okay. Other people might look at technical analysis and say something on the lines of, well, the housing has slowed down.

The new building has slowed down. The industrial has slowed down. Those are leading indicators that will have a trickle effect. If there's less production, that's less goods, which is going to increase. Costs and the supply and demand chain really is going to affect future earnings. Okay, there's quantitative analysis.

There's aggregative analysis. There's all this different way to analyze something, which is why some people will say, no, no, no, market's going to crash. Other people say market's going to go up. But you know what I say? The hell with you all! Markets go up and down! Surprise! Unless you're invested in individual stock, and I don't care if it's the biggest and baddest companies in the world right now.

Like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, whatever! I could care less! The comment is, it's great today, may not be great tomorrow. So you have to take a look at your situation and see what you should do. I recommend staying diversified and staying invested always globally. This is a key piece to your success. If you need help with this.

Give us a call. We would love to help. Our phone number is 855 963 2526. That's 855 96 Falcon, like the bird, where we can put this together for you and help relate this show to your specific situation. Cause you can go to our knowledge center through our website at falconwealthplanning. com. That's falconwp.

com for short. We get so much information to help relate the show to your situation, to answer these questions for you and learn new strategies that's available. Because that's the secret in investing. Nobody knows what the hell is going to happen. So, if you don't know, if I don't know, and professionals don't know, then what are we all doing here?

We're sharing knowledge to tell you why you should stay invested, because markets and companies and us all are looking to prosper and grow. And that's the benefit of capitalism. There's nobody to hold us down. Unfortunately, sometimes you see corruption from it, but the idea is that most people and companies are honest, good people with strong visions.

Stay disciplined. Stay invested. You will be financially secure. Folks, that was a fast, fast show. And thank you for tuning in with me this weekend. You can always reach out to myself or any one of my colleagues here at Falcon Wealth Planning. Our phone number is 855 963 2526. That's 855 96 Falcon. Like the bird.

Or visit our website at falconwealthplanning. com. That's falcon, WP. com. For short, or visit our website and on our knowledge center, we can get this episode and one of our previous episodes as well. And you can see so many cool things on our YouTube channel as well as we have up almost a million views on that folks.

Thank you for tuning in. I want you to have a fantastic weekend. Have a great week and God bless.